Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 28 2021 | 11009 | 48185 | 352 | 104 | 114 | 153 |
| March 01 2021 | 11009 | 48206 | 352 | 104 | 103 | 142 |
| March 02 2021 | 11018 | 48322 | 354 | 104 | 95 | 147 |
| March 03 2021 | 11033 | 48406 | 355 | 105 | 106 | 149 |
| March 04 2021 | 11058 | 48511 | 356 | 105 | 96 | 139 |
| March 05 2021 | 11030 | 48562 | 356 | 105 | 92 | 128 |
| March 06 2021 | 11042 | 48606 | 356 | 105 | 85 | 123 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 0.9 | 13.6% | 11 | 0.1% | 11 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 1.0 | 22.2% | 18 | 0.13% | 21 | 0.15% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 0.6 | 17.3% | 14 | 0.07% | 23 | 0.11% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.0 | 3.7% | 3 | 0.02% | 6 | 0.04% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 0.6 | 9.9% | 8 | 0.08% | 15 | 0.14% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 1.4 | 17.3% | 14 | 0.11% | 20 | 0.16% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.4 | 4.9% | 4 | 0.03% | 9 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.9 | 11.1% | 9 | 0.09% | 14 | 0.13% |
| All ages | 12 | 5.7 | 100% | 81 | 0.08% | 119 | 0.11% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 28 2021 | 7043 | 28379 | 222 | 92 | 54 | 73 |
| March 01 2021 | 7044 | 28406 | 222 | 92 | 51 | 74 |
| March 02 2021 | 7052 | 28475 | 222 | 92 | 52 | 76 |
| March 03 2021 | 7057 | 28527 | 222 | 93 | 48 | 73 |
| March 04 2021 | 7065 | 28569 | 222 | 93 | 56 | 76 |
| March 05 2021 | 7072 | 28600 | 222 | 93 | 59 | 79 |
| March 06 2021 | 7077 | 28638 | 225 | 93 | 64 | 77 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.1 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 0.01% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.1 | 10.9% | 7 | 0.08% | 9 | 0.11% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.7 | 12.5% | 8 | 0.11% | 5 | 0.07% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.4 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 0.01% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.3 | 7.8% | 5 | 0.06% | 4 | 0.05% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 1.4 | 20.3% | 13 | 0.13% | 22 | 0.23% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.7 | 23.4% | 15 | 0.18% | 19 | 0.23% |
| 70+ | 3 | 1.6 | 25% | 16 | 0.22% | 16 | 0.22% |
| All ages | 5 | 5.4 | 100% | 64 | 0.1% | 77 | 0.12% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 28 2021 | 5362 | 18735 | 235 | 76 | 92 | 117 |
| March 01 2021 | 5367 | 18751 | 236 | 76 | 85 | 113 |
| March 02 2021 | 5369 | 18761 | 237 | 76 | 74 | 113 |
| March 03 2021 | 5393 | 18790 | 238 | 76 | 94 | 126 |
| March 04 2021 | 5401 | 18834 | 238 | 76 | 96 | 131 |
| March 05 2021 | 5412 | 18854 | 237 | 76 | 103 | 130 |
| March 06 2021 | 5421 | 18863 | 238 | 76 | 100 | 126 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.1 | 5% | 5 | 0.09% | 6 | 0.11% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.1 | 9% | 9 | 0.17% | 12 | 0.22% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 1.1 | 13% | 13 | 0.29% | 18 | 0.4% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 2.0 | 21% | 21 | 0.39% | 25 | 0.46% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.9 | 10% | 10 | 0.2% | 14 | 0.28% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 2.7 | 24% | 24 | 0.35% | 28 | 0.41% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.0 | 12% | 12 | 0.19% | 14 | 0.22% |
| 70+ | 3 | 0.7 | 6% | 6 | 0.09% | 9 | 0.14% |
| All ages | 9 | 9.7 | 100% | 100 | 0.22% | 126 | 0.28% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 28 2021 | 12230 | 52899 | 363 | 78 | 137 | 203 |
| March 01 2021 | 12232 | 52957 | 363 | 78 | 117 | 198 |
| March 02 2021 | 12246 | 53035 | 365 | 80 | 122 | 187 |
| March 03 2021 | 12268 | 53183 | 369 | 80 | 141 | 182 |
| March 04 2021 | 12277 | 53248 | 370 | 80 | 144 | 184 |
| March 05 2021 | 12291 | 53326 | 372 | 80 | 134 | 163 |
| March 06 2021 | 12287 | 53383 | 372 | 80 | 116 | 154 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 1.4 | 12% | 15 | 0.13% | 19 | 0.16% |
| 10-19 | -7 | 0.7 | 8% | 10 | 0.06% | 17 | 0.1% |
| 20-29 | -4 | 2.3 | 18.4% | 23 | 0.11% | 30 | 0.14% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 1.0 | 11.2% | 14 | 0.1% | 16 | 0.12% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.6 | 15.2% | 19 | 0.14% | 24 | 0.18% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.4 | 12.8% | 16 | 0.11% | 23 | 0.16% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.9 | 12.8% | 16 | 0.11% | 19 | 0.13% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.6 | 9.6% | 12 | 0.09% | 15 | 0.12% |
| All ages | -4 | 10.9 | 100% | 125 | 0.11% | 163 | 0.14% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 28 2021 | 40517 | 321795 | 1236 | 273 | 933 | 1247 |
| March 01 2021 | 40571 | 322133 | 1241 | 273 | 827 | 1254 |
| March 02 2021 | 40577 | 322084 | 1241 | 273 | 716 | 1231 |
| March 03 2021 | 40641 | 322293 | 1244 | 273 | 695 | 1201 |
| March 04 2021 | 40763 | 322804 | 1246 | 278 | 762 | 1179 |
| March 05 2021 | 40814 | 323082 | 1249 | 278 | 773 | 1070 |
| March 06 2021 | 40895 | 323450 | 1251 | 278 | 772 | 1034 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 2.7 | 4% | 31 | 0.05% | 45 | 0.07% |
| 10-19 | 20 | 14.0 | 24.9% | 192 | 0.27% | 271 | 0.38% |
| 20-29 | 21 | 21.1 | 33.5% | 259 | 0.25% | 353 | 0.34% |
| 30-39 | 14 | 8.7 | 11.8% | 91 | 0.12% | 113 | 0.15% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 8.3 | 9.8% | 76 | 0.12% | 95 | 0.14% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 6.4 | 9.3% | 72 | 0.11% | 87 | 0.13% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 3.9 | 4.8% | 37 | 0.07% | 46 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 3 | 1.6 | 1.8% | 14 | 0.03% | 24 | 0.05% |
| All ages | 81 | 66.7 | 100% | 772 | 0.14% | 1034 | 0.19% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 28 2021 | 563960 | 2626796 | 26127 | 6412 | 6238 | 8657 |
| March 01 2021 | 564268 | 2629622 | 26158 | 6412 | 5772 | 8560 |
| March 02 2021 | 564592 | 2631712 | 26222 | 6440 | 5420 | 8260 |
| March 03 2021 | 565131 | 2634999 | 26279 | 6458 | 5556 | 8142 |
| March 04 2021 | 565808 | 2639148 | 26330 | 6470 | 5810 | 8086 |
| March 05 2021 | 566158 | 2642182 | 26387 | 6477 | 5594 | 7662 |
| March 06 2021 | 566364 | 2644343 | 26432 | 6478 | 5053 | 7192 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 33 | 31.7 | 7.5% | 378 | 0.06% | 527 | 0.08% |
| 10-19 | 63 | 69.7 | 17.2% | 869 | 0.11% | 1215 | 0.16% |
| 20-29 | 28 | 68.7 | 16.8% | 847 | 0.11% | 1193 | 0.16% |
| 30-39 | 27 | 54.3 | 13.1% | 664 | 0.09% | 973 | 0.13% |
| 40-49 | 20 | 57.9 | 13.9% | 701 | 0.1% | 998 | 0.14% |
| 50-59 | 18 | 64.3 | 15.2% | 767 | 0.09% | 1084 | 0.13% |
| 60-69 | 30 | 43.7 | 10.7% | 541 | 0.07% | 765 | 0.1% |
| 70+ | -13 | 19.4 | 5.7% | 286 | 0.04% | 437 | 0.07% |
| All ages | 206 | 409.7 | 100% | 5053 | 0.09% | 7192 | 0.12% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.4 | 15.4 | 11 | 6.3 | 10.1 | 7.4% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.9 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 11.6% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.8 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 29.8% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.8 | 10.3 | 14.1 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 11.5% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.9 | 38.1 | 34 | 66.7 | 99.3 | 19.5% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.4 | 16.1 | 15.8 | 409.7 | 604.6 | 12.1% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-03-27 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5554"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges